03/04/2011
Global inflationary spiral
By Markus Gärtner, Vancouver
Escalating prices are driving through the streets of thousands of Indians, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao warned of unrest: an inflation tsunami threatens the booming Asia to flood, which helped pull Germany like a tug out of recession.
economists now fear shock waves as far as Germany. Hamburg - In Europe and the U.S. rolled to an inflation avalanche. The price of oil, for example, has increased by 15 percent within one month, since summer by half. Cotton costs 148 percent more than last year - and is now more expensive than during the American Civil War. In the euro-zone producer prices are rising on a monthly basis as soon as no longer since 1982. In a word: Inflation Tsunami in the emerging markets is going on our border. No customs officer stopped him. How could they? Already, inflation has reached global dimensions.
march in New Delhi, thousands of Indians through the streets and protest against escalating prices. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao warned of social unrest. The Prime Minister knows that the escalating prices, combined with rapidly rising wages at the end of the People's Republic can start as low factory in the world. In North Africa and the Middle East, so just drop decade-old regime like dominoes - first in Tunisia, then in Egypt, perhaps soon in Libya. And in all cases there are heaven-storming prices for food and energy in the game. And in the rich West? In forums on the U.S. Internet Users complain that they are at the gas station now pay for the air in the tires need. Even Cavalier starts at the traffic lights are more expensive.
Sure, over such gallows humor can still smile. The well-known in the investment community managing director of merchant bank Tangent Capital Partners in New York, Jim Rickards, compares the surging inflation, however, already prefer to use a snow avalanche, "You will never find out which flakes caused the roll, but it will make the whole village flat" said Rickards. particularly in the booming Asia, which helped the West after the financial crisis as a harbor tug pulling out of recession, are the escalating oil prices are a huge challenge alone, the oil bill made last year an average of 6 percent of the economic performance of the Asian tigers, experts expect the Swiss banking giant UBS. This means that the oil price rises by 10 percent - as the end of February - and then the economic performance of the Tiger countries grew by 0.6 percentage points slower and Europe and America threatens exports a damper. And this is especially true for Germany.
gloomy prophecies scare consumers
Hardly any other major economy has recently benefited so greatly from the Asian boom, as the German. "Currently we are exporting a little more in the U.S. than to China. But with a little luck in two years China could be a more important its market than the United States. "said Commerzbank chief economist Joerg Kraemer early as 2010, China rose to the largest sales market for German exporters outside Europe, perhaps it is this prospect that provoked several days now but drastic warnings." The price escalation, not least because rising oil prices will be a global shock, "Kaushik Basu predicts gloomy, the advisor to the Indian finance minister. How much the shock now turns out, has estimated the U.S. central bank.
brakes According to the U.S. economists all increases in oil prices by 10 dollar the economy 0.2 percentage points. That would be since the end of 2010 alone 0.4 percentage points. The may sound at first dramatic. But should the voice of economic Daumenpeilung about, the higher oil price would consume within a few weeks, which would have to forecast the U.S. central bankers, the entire U.S. economy may be accelerating this year.
"We have a lot of inflation in the system and it will be much worse," Republican Representative Ron Paul of Texas and then last week, Ben Bernanke welcomed to the hearing in Washington. Paul made Bernanke's attention to tell him that his "sources" of 9 percent inflation in the U.S.. That sounds plausible if you look at the website, The Billion Prices Project "at the renowned Massachusetts Institute of Technology looks. There daily prices for world's five million items are collected from retail. The U.S. inflation at the beginning of 2011 has reached 10 percent, according to this source. But the rise in gasoline prices since the market low in March 2009 will cost U.S. motorists annually 224 billion U.S. dollars more. That is 18 percent of personal income tax and corresponds Portugal's economic output. Something like that can pull its mark in the largest economy on the globe. And it does not. On the contrary.
Source: manager-magazin.de
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