If inflation to hyperinflation
By Erwin J. Fraser and Walter Wolfgang
If the disturbances recorded in the Arab world, Saudi Arabia or Iran, is threatening an oil price shock of more than 300 U.S. dollars.
would trigger a massive gold price breakout and also carried away the silver price, the current assessment of the experienced investor Walter K. WKE.
engineer Walter K. WKE, precious metals expert and investor
Biallo.at: How much unrest in Arab countries such as Libya, the price of gold to your assessment drive to remain high in coming months?
Walter K. WKE: The recent revolutions have mattered much. If, however, will turn Saudi Arabia or Iran, so the great oil producers, then by various estimates, an oil price of over $ 300 expected. What would bring a massive gold price broke with it. But the real driver for the price of gold is more likely the money printing and massive inflation in the West, Japan, China, etc. are.
Biallo.at: The Swiss UBS estimates that China has already imported 200 tonnes of gold this year. Do you expect that China continues to import as much gold and so with his demand continues to help push the price of gold up?
WKE: China has some special problems: massive inflation and huge bad loans at banks. The savings are there any longer. Apparently realizing the meantime, the Chinese and go into gold and silver. If the correct Run starts, can also drive China alone the gold price to new heights - the individual as well as the Chinese central bank.
"2.4 percent inflation - it's absolutely ridiculous"
Biallo.at: increases the value of money. The Institute for Advanced Studies, expects this year with an inflation of 2.4 percent and for next year even with 2.5 percent. This means that all savers who receive from their bank for their savings, savings rates below 2.4 percent lose real money already. For gold, there is no interest - because investors can only hope for gains. Is this for the next two or three years of the most important way for investors to escape the rising inflation rate?
WKE: 2.4 percent - this is absolutely ridiculous. Gold on my Web site www.hartgeld.com there is an inflation-side. As reader reports are reproduced through price increases. Price increases of 20 percent more likely the lower limit. Of course, not all raised prices. But in the euro zone should we currently have on average higher by 10.0 per cent price than a year ago. After the banks are currently paying almost no interest, that results in a depreciation of about 10.0 percent in one year. Forever be the savers do not tolerate, then comes the flight, such as gold.
Gold paid no interest, right. But it rises in the price - compared with the paper money, which fall heavily against gold. Once appropriate interest must be paid, crashing the system together. Then you need even more the lifeboats of gold.
Biallo.at: What you think is the risk that the price of gold again in the next twelve months strong fall back?
WKE: Leave For years, various analysts and gold-haters believe that the gold price will drop dramatically, to about 600 U.S. dollars / ounce, or even $ 250. Nothing like that happened. Apart from some pullback by a few percent, usually brought on by the price-depressing gold cartel, the price of gold rises and on. Gold and silver are just in a Primary Bull Market. This will continue until today's paper currencies are destroyed and a new gold standard has been established.
€ The next crisis is sure
Biallo.at: Finance Minister Josef Pröll sees the euro by the future permanent Euro-rescue of about 500 billion €, which will be set up in 2013, when adequately stabilized. Do you agree with that?
WKE: The Peppi Pröll cackles as the other Euro-rescue chicken whatsoever of the "stabilization of the euro". They want to calm down with the cackling only the bond market and depositors. But the next crisis comes € sure, this time from Portugal and Spain. In reality, all these politicians are just afraid to tell their voters: your savings are gone. In reality, these savings were long verkonsumiert of the PIGS in the world.
Biallo.at: There are experts who have Increase in the price of silver up to $ 100 per troy ounce prophesy, some see the price of silver by the year 2014 even at 160 U.S. dollars. Do you think this possible?
WKE: The situation in the silver market is currently extremely tense. There is almost nothing left, because now the "Big Money" silver purchases. We are probably still in the 1st Quarter of 2011, a silver price of $ 50 per oz see, so as in 1980 when the Hunt brothers bought up all the silver. As soon as the financial system breaks down, each and every gold price of silver is possible. The gold / silver ratio will then go to about 10:1, for now we have 40:1.
Biallo.at: What are the price increases to declare for silver? Due to increasing demand from the industry, by demand for jewelry or simply by a boom in demand as a capital preservation?
WKE: As already said, the Big Money, that large investors will, in silver. In value terms, there is much less silver than gold, so the market is much narrower and can be purchased empty more easily what is happening now.
Biallo.at: The amount of recovered silver per year around 20,000 tonnes. Will this amount increase in the coming years, your opinion, or even more reduced?
WKE: The can not be predicted as easily as much silver as By-product of other funding obtained. If this fall, will decrease the total silver production.
Biallo.at: How big is the risk that the price of silver falls back to the Depression in 2002 by four U.S. Dollars per troy ounce?
WKE: Rather, we see $ 40,000 / ounce of silver as a back 4.0 U.S. dollars. Also, silver is like gold in a Primary Bull Market, as a money metal.
Biallo.at: silver compared to gold has indeed a very small value to investors - could surpass silver gold in the coming years in its importance to investors in the coming years?
WKE: When currencies collapse hyperinflationary, then gold will become so expensive that almost no one can afford. An ounce of gold will then cost as much as a whole kilogram of gold a few years ago, 15 000 U.S. dollars or so - if it still should be a €, which is unlikely. When silver 1 / 10 of it will cost, it is the lifeboat of the "little man" to be. Silver has always been "poor man's gold".
Biallo.at: The crisis in the Arab world is driving the prices of petroleum and petroleum products again rapidly in the air. What is your opinion of the oil price will rise even more this year?
WKE: As said before, this depends on whether there is a revolution in the major oil states like Saudi Arabia. And of course, if the dollar collapses. If the dollar crashes, as there is for gold even when oil is no limit to the top.
Biallo.at: petroleum products are also the biggest price driver as the Statistics Austria in their inflation calculations showing again and again. Would it have been wise for investors years ago their money in oil stocks instead of investing in precious metals? After all, to stop the hunger for energy from countries such as China, India, Brazil for years. Where the price of oil to your assessment of the end of this year will be?
WKE: precious metals are "safer" than oil and other commodities, because they represent money. They are also easily stored. The world economy is currently extremely inflated by massive money printing. If the crashes occur, the oil price will fall again - at least in relation to gold.
All stocks are currently overpriced
Biallo.at: What do you think, given the growing demand for energy investments in electricity, natural gas provider or the solar power industry?
WKE: All stocks are currently overpriced due to the low interest rates, the shares of the energy industry. Therefore, they will crash if the currencies with high Interest rates for gold have to be defended - in any currency crisis. All of these "renewable energy" can forget anyway, since they only exist on massive subsidies forced by the current customer. These subsidies are already back down because they are less and less accepted. This will put the industry a fatal blow.
Biallo.at: What you think is the chance that energy in the coming years, such as increased competition, new oil discoveries or innovations will be cheaper again?
WKE: energy is compared to our income in the West are still quite cheap. It should be about the situation in the 1950s See years. Our income will go down though. Then this forced subsidies for green power will be challenged. The biggest price driver for energy is clearly the state.
Biallo.at: The appalling environmental disasters in recent months has led to massive crop failures at the same time, the rising prosperity of countries like China with its billion population, a greater demand for meat that is produced among others by using grain. That can only mean higher prices. Should we invest now on the stock exchanges in agricultural commodities - after all, the price increases for corn and wheat in recent months, enormous?
WKE: The agricultural commodities have skyrocketed. Whether they will continue to do so? Probably yes, but not linear. When you enter now, this is a beginner's mistake and will probably have to be paid a reasonable price check. Commodity exchanges are generally just for professionals. Interestingly, it is safer and longer-term investors to buy agricultural land with us, although this has increased in the price. But you have to know is there and have the money - that is something for farmers with too much money - not for the little Maxi from the city.
Source: Biallo.at
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